Futuros Alternativos para la Región de Loreto

 

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR THE REGION OF LORETO,
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, MEXICO


Visual Model and Impacts

The visual model assesses the impact of future development and resulting landscape changes on visual quality. Survey results support the observation that the visual quality of the landscape in the Loreto region is a critical source of economic competitiveness for the area’s tourism and real estate markets. The impacts of land use change are measured using the visual preferences of local residents and visitors as recorded in interviews carried out in the photographic survey. To assess the consequences of future change on the visual landscape, a model of visual quality is estimated using the results of a photographic survey of residents and visitors (Figure 15).

Survey respondents were asked to order sixty photographs that represent the existing landscape of the Loreto region according to their scenic preferences. Ten of these sixty photographs in the survey were altered to represent possible future developed conditions. The sixty photographs in are shown on the following pages in order of preference, from the highest rated to lowest rated, reading from upper left, across, and down. (Figures 16 and 17).

The visual quality assessment is implemented in four stages. First, the quality of the view from each location is recorded by cross-referencing the type of view from each location with the results of the visual survey. Four kinds of views are rated the highest: undeveloped ocean, island, and mountain views, and views in Loreto’s historic center. These views are then identified, located, and assessed by a GIS-based model.


In the second stage of the visual assessment, the high-quality views are weighted by their predicted exposure to residents and visitors; the most visited and public views, such as those from the main north-south highway, are given greater weight compared to high-quality views that are, in effect, private. The third stage defines the areas that constitute the viewshed for these locations. This delineates the areas that are most deserving of visual protection, and the areas that suffer the highest costs if the view is degraded. This process creates a number of priority viewsheds that tend to fall along the north-south highway as well as in coastal areas with good public access. The final stage in the visual assessment is to assess the damage to the most important viewsheds resulting from different types of future development.

The impacts of visual models are reported by location. The model considers both the degree of change and the visual value of the impacted area. Two levels of impacts are reported, moderate and severe. Figure 19 displays the extent and locations of visual impact of the Plan Propuesta with a population of 120,000.

In order to compare the visual impacts of the different Alternative Futures, the level of impacts is summarized using a simple scoring method that totals the impact scores for each location on the landscape. The results of the visual impact assessment are summarized in Figure 20. (The scores have been normalized; which means that the scores are based on a comparison with the scores of the other scenarios. A lower score indicates a more severe impact.)


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