The Scenarios
Each scenario is defined by a unique combination of economic growth
and policy variables. Economic and population growth forecasts are
linked to the number of new rooms in planned developments, including
tourism resorts. The policy context determines the amount and location
of land to be available for development in each of the scenarios. In
addition, assumptions regarding the placement of new roads and upgrade
of existing roads vary by scenario.
Population Growth Alternatives
The demand for new land uses is reflected in five possible
alternatives defined by the number of rooms in tourism-related
developments. The number of new rooms accounts for both hotel rooms
and rooms in the high-end residential market, including villas,
condominiums, and other similar housing development projects. This is
appropriate given that much of the growth in Loreto will be the result
of housing developments.
The linkage between the expansion of the real estate, tourism markets,
and population growth is estimated using a simple ratio of population
in respect to tourism-related rooms of 15 to 1. This number is based
on the experience of other tourist destinations in Mexico. However, we
also recognize the uncertainty in this ratio. The actual ratio will
depend on many factors, such as the overall performance of the Mexican
economy and the performance of the other tourism locations. The ratio
of new migrants to tourism development is also a key determinant in
future levels of per capita income for the region. The population to
room ratio is largely beyond the control of local leaders. However,
leaders are able to limit the number of new tourism-related rooms that
are permitted, which will have an impact on the population.
To account for this uncertainty, we look at the implications of lower
and higher population-to-room ratios in the largest scenarios,
constructing two scenarios built on ratios of 10 to 1 and 20 to 1,
respectively.
The existing population of the region is estimated at 15,000. We
define 5 levels of possible growth over the next 20 years. The lowest
assumes a doubling of population. The highest projects an ultimate
population of 240,000 people, based on a total of 12,000
tourism-related rooms and a population to room ratio of 20 to 1. The
rate of growth necessary to reach the estimated population levels in
the year 2025 varies from 3.5% to almost 15% (see Table 1). As we
discuss later, both the ultimate size of the population and the rate
of growth represent a critical challenges for planning and policy.
The demand for new land uses is derived from planned resort and
housing developments, population levels, and gross development
densities for each of the land use categories. We do not assume
contiguous development that is of uniform density. Therefore, the new
developed areas allocated on the landscape are gross densities,
implying that there will be open spaces interspersed with the actual
new developments. The polygons should therefore be interpreted as
showing the extent of influence of urban development, not the actual
footprint of individual buildings and housing plots. The projected
densities of new development vary with the demand and supply of new
land uses. The demands for new lands uses are shown in Figure 7.
Supply of Developable Land
The supply of developable land is defined by a set of land use
policies. The columns in Table 2
correspond to different policy sets that define where future
development would be permitted.
 Five policy options are included in the study:
Sin Planeación
This alternative assumes that all land is available for development.
The only areas that are precluded from development in the computer
simulations are areas with steep slopes or frequent flooding. These
limitations are included to approximate behavioral choices of
landowners and developers, not policy choices.
Plan Propuesta
This alternative represents a somewhat simplified version of the plan
currently under consideration in Loreto. In the actual plan, the
allowable density for development varies by location. Nevertheless,
the implied densities of future growth allocated by the computer
models are consistent with the limits stated in the plan. Where
site-level plans are available, we have tried to replicate the plans
for each of the areas.
Loreto 2025
This policy set reflects a spatial plan submitted for study by a local
non-governmental organization, Loreto 2025. Much of the future growth
in this plan is restricted to the northern areas of the region close
to the town of Loreto. Fewer areas in the south are opened for
development. We offered to study alternative plans submitted by local
groups. This was the only such plan that was submitted to us.
Proactivo Moderado
This policy set includes a number of policies designed to protect key
public goods, including hydrological, ecological, visual,
recreational, and economic assets. This alternative is a rulesbased
zoning pattern created by the research team that was later converted
into a spatial model by the computer, guided by the spatial rules.
Areas of high ecological or visual value are set aside, as well as
areas subject to safety risks. These areas include areas at risk of
flooding from hurricanes, arroyos that flood regularly, areas with
important biodiversity, steep slopes, and highquality view corridors.
Proactivo Muy Regulado
This policy set is based on the same criteria as the previous
alternative, except that the level of visual protection is much
stricter, thereby removing additional land from possible development.
Table 3 summarizes the elements that define the policy sets.
The constraint areas function differently for each of the land use
types. High-end housing, for example, is permitted to build on slopes
of up to 20%, while commerce and mixed urban is restricted to land on
slopes no greater than 10%. The new land use allocations assume that
resorts, high-end housing, commerce, and mixed urban respect the
designated spatial plans. The allocation of informal settlements is
governed by the assumption that enforcement of property rights is
costly, both economically and politically, and will therefore not be
consistently implemented. Informal housing therefore does not respect
these same spatial restrictions, although they are prevented from
building in areas of high development value. |
