The Process of Allocation
The economic projections from each scenario are converted into demands
for new land uses in five categories: hotels and villas, high-end
residential, commerce, mixed urban, and informal housing. A computer
program then defines the areas that are constrained from development
by the relevant policy set. Subsequently, the development
attractiveness model for each development type is implemented based
upon infrastructure investments that either attract or repel
development. The program allocates the new land uses which are
required in the order in which they are assumed to be able to pay:
hotels and villas, high-end residential, commerce, mixed urban, and
informal.
The computer models are designed to reflect a context in which market
forces and individual choices determine the location of future
development in all the scenarios. These policy sets also assume that
there are normal levels of public resources to meet the demands for
new services and infrastructure.
Twenty-five scenarios are developed in order to include a broad
selection of policy choices. Each scenario creates an Alternative
Future that is evaluated in terms of the over-all level of economic
and ecological impacts and the spatial distribution of those impacts,
including both water and land. Each of the scenarios is projected over
a 20-year time horizon.
The resulting land use patterns vary in terms of the extent, the
direction, and the pattern of growth. Figure 9 shows projected land
use in the year 2025 for Alternative Future PP120 - the proposed
development plan at a population of 120,000. In this alternative,
development extends to essentially all of the most attractive
locations in the study area.
The projected land use pattern for the plan proposed by the group,
Loreto 2025, is shown in Figure 10 at a population of 120,000. This
configuration concentrates much more of the development in the areas
surrounding the town of Loreto. Development in the southern areas is
restricted to relatively small windows where development is permitted.
V. What difference might the changes cause?
This question is answered by impact models, which are based upon the
process models under changed conditions. The economic, social,
hydrological, ecological, visual, and marine impacts are estimated for
each of the Alternative Futures in the year 2025.
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