Introduction
This study investigates how economic performance, demographic changes,
private and public investments, and public policy choices could
influence urban growth and land use change in the region of Loreto of
Baja California, Mexico, over the next 20 years. The study assesses
how these changes will impact the area’s hydrology and ecology, as
well as its visual, social, and economic landscape.
A range of scenarios for the region of Loreto is developed in this
study. The scenarios are studied using digital models that evaluate
the locational attractiveness for the major land use types of the
area, and project a range of Alternative Futures through the year
2025. Computerbased models, built on expert knowledge, local
interviews, and comparable locations in Mexico, assess the economic,
ecological, hydrological, and visual impacts of the Alternative
Futures. These models are used to analyze the consequences of the
range of policy choices embedded in the scenarios.
Interviews and discussions with relevant individuals and groups
informed the study, both to help determine the types and extent of the
conservation and development strategies to be studied,and to help
define the economic, social, hydrological, visual, and ecological
assessment models. The study relies on existing data, scientific
research, and professional expertise. One of the results of this
effort has been the compilation of a comprehensive digital information
database for the Loreto region.
Decision-makers in Loreto will face a number of major challenges over
the next years: providing adequate drinking water, ensuring public
access to beaches and marine areas, safeguarding the visual quality of
the city and surrounding areas, reducing poverty while managing
in-migration, maintaining the economic health of the historic core of
the city, preserving traditional societal values, enhancing tourism,
attracting new ideas and innovation, protecting and improving quality
of life for all citizens, managing development for the benefit of both
current and future residents, and protecting fragile marine and
terrestrial ecosystems.
This study is elaborated at a time when city leaders are considering
action on a proposed regional development plan that outlines a legal
zoning plan that delineates where future development is permitted. The
principal objective of the study is to aid city and regional leaders
in evaluating the plan and possible modifications. The hope is that
this study will also be useful in formulating planning policy for the
future of the region. The introduction of effective regulatory
controls is essential if the region is to maintain the economic,
hydrological, ecological, societal, and visual base upon which future
growth will depend.
Short-term objectives have often taken precedence over longer term
planning. Government administrators and policy makers are forced to
make land use decisions without proper consideration of the full range
of impacts and without adequate consideration of longer-term
consequences. This study seeks to contribute to policy formulation and
land use planning processes in Loreto and to further economically and
environmentally sustainable development. |
