Conclusions
The different spatial plans expressed in the twenty-five Alternative
Futures exert a strong influence on the pattern and location of
growth. New land use policies and related regulations could have a
dramatic influence on the pattern of future land use. The ecological,
visual, and marine impacts of the 25 alternatives vary according to
the projected new land use pattern. The performance of these factors,
in turn, influences the projected economic success for Loreto. This
creates a situation in which the environmental and economic outcomes
are correlated; if planned for and located properly, economic and
environmental outcomes are not in conflict.
A principal conflict in the future of Loreto lies between pursuing
actions that entail short-term benefits and the more politically
difficult strategy of restricting short-term development in order to
maintain more control over medium-term and long-term objectives such
as environmental quality and social cohesion. A related conflict will
be in defining whether the developable land is opened for private
development or set aside in the public interest.
Historically, undeveloped areas surrounding the city of Loreto have
supported a high quality of life, a healthy environment, and ample
recreational opportunities for the citizens of Loreto. These amenities
also attract visitors and support the tourism and real estate sectors
of the region. The view of the water, islands, and mountains is one of
the public amenities that contribute to the character of Loreto.
Permitting private development is essential for economic growth. A key
decision for the future of Loreto is to what degree these public
amenities may be modified by private development.
Today, Loreto depends on groundwater for its water supply. All the
scenarios assessed in this study exhibit the loss of groundwater
resources and result in saline intrusion into public wells. In the
future, alternative sources of water will need to be developed, with
desalinization the only apparent option. The difference in the various
scenarios is the point in time in which desalinization will be become
necessary for supplying all the fresh water to Loreto. The impacts of
desalinization can be considerable, particularly when done without
expensive remediation efforts. If steps are not taken to prevent
significant damage to marine ecosystems, the provision of water could
contribute to an erosion of one the principal attractions and economic
assets of the
Loreto region: the excellent fishing and marine recreation in the
national park.
Degradation of the ecological, visual and recreational landscape may
have profound consequences for the future of the tourism and real
estate sectors, as well as the quality of life for the residents of
Loreto. As the size of Loreto grows, the risk of damaging the economic
base for sustaining future growth also increases. The logical response
to this situation is to develop the area in carefully controlled
stages, rather than opening up the region now to a level of growth
that eventually may prove to undermine economic growth and reduce the
quality of life in Loreto. This suggests a potentially difficult
conflict between the interests of the general public and individual
landowners that stand to lose in the short-term if their development
rights are curtailed. However,
the results of this study also point out the potential losses expected
for all – including landowners – if excessive development occurs. This
transforms the problem into one of educating the stakeholders on the
risks and opportunities, and allocating the development rights in a
way that considers both equity and the necessity of incorporating the
spatial criteria in deciding land use rights.
The leadership of Loreto is forced to make a decision in the near
future in the face of great uncertainty. The responsible course of
action in this context is to proceed with a strategy that allows
future administrations to adapt the decisions taken today in light of
better information. The current administration should not take
decisions that are effectively irreversible, and development rights,
once granted, cannot easily be rescinded.
VI. How should the landscape be changed?
Loreto must plan and implement an appropriate balance between
protecting its valuable ecological, visual, and recreational landscape
and promoting growth through private development. Additional land-use
related policies must be integrated into the regulatory and planning
framework for Loreto.
The most important question, “How should the landscape be changed?”,
must be answered by the actions of the decision-makers of Loreto. The
scenarios used to develop the Alternative Futures are representations
of a range of policy decisions that can be made in the near future.
Comparison of the Alternative Futures and their impacts allows
decision-makers to explore the likely future effects of current policy
choices.
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