The Conceptual Framework
The study of the Loreto region is organized according to the framework
for Alternative Futures studies developed by Carl Steinitz (1995). The
framework consists of six questions (Figure 5). In designing a study
of Alternative Futures for an area, the answers – the models and their
applications – result from the unique conditions of the study area.
I. How should the state of the landscape be described in content,
space, and time?
This question is answered by representation models that describe the
study area. The boundary of the study area is defined to allow
modeling interactions among hydrological, economic, and ecological
processes, and to include the areas most directly affected by policy
decisions. A computer-based Geographic Information System (GIS) is
used to organize the data spatially, to model and represent the
complex processes at work. The baseline land use and economic
conditions are defined for the year 2005. This establishes the
reference period against which the impacts of future change are
measured.
II. How does the landscape operate? What are the functional and
structural relationships among its elements?
This question is answered by process models that provide information
for the assessments that form the core of the study. Process models
are developed for economics, new land use development, hydrology,
terrestrial ecology, marine ecology, visual quality, and recreation.
Process models are used to describe and evaluate how the current
landscape works, and to assess the potential impacts of each of the
scenarios relative to baseline conditions in the year
2005. Just as issues facing the region are interrelated, the computer
models are interlinked.
The economic and demographic models are based on a range of
development alternatives and the relationship between the number of
rooms in the tourism and high-end housing markets and the rate at
which new migrants are drawn to the area in search of economic
opportunities. The demographic projections associated with each of the
scenarios produce estimates of the demand for new housing and for
commercial, industrial, and tourism-related development.
The development model evaluates the attractiveness of the available
land for different types of new land use demands. This model directs
the computer allocation of new housing and business development to
preferred locations in the study area.
The hydrological model assesses both ground and surface water. The
groundwater model estimates the estimated annual recharge of
groundwater. This serves as a rough measure of the sustainable levels
of groundwater extraction that will be available. The groundwater
model also predicts the impact of higher pumping rates on the aquifer
by estimating the year in which saline intrusion will render the
aquifer unusable without employing desalinization. The level of future
water demand is linked to the economic and demographic projections.
The surface water model identifies areas at risk of flooding in the
event of a 50-year storm.
The visual model uses the results of a photographic survey to define
the scenic preferences and visual quality of the landscape as
evaluated by local residents and tourists. The model applies these
preferences to describe the existing scenic quality throughout the
study area and forms the basis for measuring changes in visual quality
associated with each of the Alternative Futures. Finally, a land value
model assesses the impact of the different policy sets on property
values.
The terrestrial ecology model assesses the relative value of the
region’s vegetation and habitat types. The marine ecological model
assesses the potential impact of land use and demographic changes on
the adjoining marine areas. An additional model looks at fishing catch
and its influence on the risk of overexploitation in the fisheries.
III. Is the current landscape working well?
This question is answered by evaluation models, which evaluate
existing conditions in the study area in terms of the parameters
inherent in each of process models listed above. The output of each of
the evaluation models is a map or chart of the baseline conditions in
2005.
IV. How might the landscape be altered, by what policies and
actions, where and when?
This question is answered by the change scenarios that are projected
in the research. The scenarios were developed based upon wide ranging
discussions with stakeholders and experts, and are intended to
represent the broadest spectrum of foreseeable futures. |
