The Loreto region is an ecologically unique and historic region situated in a coastal setting on the east coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico (Figure 1). Loreto is in a phase of development that is extending the use of its natural resources, particularly potable water. Often development can be inhibited by the lack of electricity, potable water, and adequate waste disposal facilities. As the use of alternative resources is investigated, it is important to understand the social, economic, and environmental implications of accelerating the pace of development beyond existing natural resource levels.

The Loreto region has specific constraints associated with siting a desalination facility. These include the presence of a marine park and the location of existing water supplies. Additionally, the existing infrastructure and rapid growth of the region accelerate the desire of some residents to develop private desalination facilities. The application of best practices and understanding of the implications of how desalination will shape the future of the region will be a pivotal component to approaching a well-integrated and productive solution.

Upon its establishment in 1973 by the Mexican federal government, FONATUR (Fondo Nacional de Fomento Al Turismo, or the National Trust Fund for Tourism Development) identified five destinations in Mexico with the highest future tourism potential: Cancun, Los Cabos, Ixtapa- Zihuatanejo, Huatulco and Loreto. Loreto is the only one of these areas that has not been developed into a prime tourist destination, mainly owing to its poor quality beaches and historic lack of private investment. As a result, the success of the Loreto market will depend more on the preferences of homeowners looking for short-term luxury stays in ownership properties than on tourists seeking specific resort features. Such ownership markets have the potential to develop their public infrastructure in a more comprehensive and community-based manner than markets built up as traditional tourism destinations. FONATUR currently owns nearly 30 square kilometers of land in the Loreto area that is intended for development, mainly in Nópolo and the Puerto Escondido- Ligüi region (Steinitz et al. 2005).

Figure 1: Regional Map of Loreto and Surrounding Towns

In 2005, the Alternative Futures Study for the region of Loreto, led by Carl Steinitz of Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design examined possible population growth scenarios in response to a FONATUR-proposed urban development plan. The study examines the effects of economic performance, demographic changes, private and public investments and public policy on conservation and urban development in the Loreto region in Baja California Sur, Mexico. Projections made in the study consider the next two decades in an effort to assess how such changes will inevitably impact the region’s natural landscape, as well as its social, economic and aesthetic features. The study presents various alternative futures for the Loreto region through the use of computer based, digital models that evaluated the regional appeal for the major land use types of the area through 2025 (see www.futurosalternativosloreto.org for the full report).

These digital models prepared for the Alternative Futures Study were also used to predict the economic, ecological, hydrologic and visual impacts associated with each alternative across a range of policy options. The options covered five build-out population scenarios: 30,000, 60,000 and 90,000, each with a population to rooms ratio of 15:1; 120,000, with a population to rooms ratio of 10:1; and 240,000[1], with a population to rooms of 20:1 (Steinitz et al. 2005).

• Sin Planeación presumes that all land in the Loreto region is available for development. Nevertheless, those areas with especially steep slopes or frequent flooding are not included in order to account for probable behavioral choices of landowners and developers.
• Plan Propuesto, proposed by FONATUR, Mexico’s tourism development agency, envisions an increase in Loreto’s full-time population from approximately 15,000 to 240,0001 and an introduction of 12,000 tourist-geared rooms (hotel, time shares and condominiums) by the year 2025 (Steinitz et al. 2005).
• Loreto 2025 is the name of a local organization, consisting of civic and business groups, that developed an alternative to FONATUR’S Plan Propuesto. The Loreto 2025 plan, however, seeks to restrict population growth in Loreto to 60,000 and restricts most of the future growth to the northern areas immediately surrounding Loreto (Steinitz et al. 2005).
• Proactivo Moderado focuses on the protection of important “public goods”, such as those considered hydrological, ecological, visual, recreational and economic assets. Areas that are considered ecologically or visually valuable, in addition to areas that are subject to hurricane flooding, have arroyos (which flood frequently), areas with valuable biodiversity, steep slopes and high-quality view corridors, are protected in this policy option.
• Proactivo Muy Regulado establishes the same guidelines as those used in Proactivo Moderado, though its policies on visual protection are much more stringent; as a result, there are further restrictions placed on land development in the region.

The study concludes, “any future development must find an alternative water source for that development and the associated growth in supporting population” (Steinitz et al. 2005). The premise of this report is that this “alternative water source” can best be acquired in the short term through resource protection and enhancement possibly coupled with the development of an entirely new source, desalination. The basis for protection and enhancement, which primarily consists of conservation, infrastructure upgrades and expansion of existing supplies, will first be examined, but the focus will be on evaluating the current state of desalination technology and identifying the environmental risks and technical constraints associated with its implementation.

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